While geopolitical and economic uncertainty have dominated headlines, consumer spending behavior shows an encouraging degree of resilience. With that long-term resilience in mind, M&A investors have continued to show interest in a range of high-performing consumer industry subsectors.  

Within those areas, direct-to-consumer brands with exemplary e-commerce capabilities are especially sought after. Here, we discuss three key approaches for D2C companies and their investors seeking to tap into this resilient and growing opportunity.  

A Solid Foundation 

Despite macroeconomic uncertainty, U.S. consumer spending continues to show resilience, with projected year-over-year growth of 2.3% for 2025, driven by steady income gains and healthy balance sheets among affluent households.^{1, 2} Discretionary spending rose 2.6% month-to-date as of May 2025, reflecting consumer willingness to spend, despite inflationary worries.³

Proprietary Harris Williams consumer research affirms long-standing consumer tendencies to selectively splurge, even in uncertain economic times, with especially strong interest in travel, eating out, residential services, health and beauty products, and small household goods.⁴ 

“Year after year, our surveys show consumers persistently find room in household budgets for affordable indulgences and continue to prioritize spending on highly valued experiential services,” says Ryan Budlong, a managing director. 

“Through all the headlines around the consumer, we continue to see disruptive direct-to-consumer brands experience healthy growth—particularly those with strong brand identities and value propositions for their communities,” says Bernardo Villar, a director. Indeed, as shown in Figure 1, while digital consumer activity declined slightly in 2024, 2025 has shown promising growth across digital channels. 

Figure 1: 2025 Rebound in Digital Consumer Activity

Source: Harris Williams proprietary data analysis via Semrush analytics; YTD 2025 compares YTD Apr-25 to YTD Apr-24; CAGR time period of 5.33 years (1) Total Visits / Unique Visitors 

Reflecting on this surge in digital activity, e-commerce remains the fastest-growing channel for all consumer brands, says Villar, a trend he expects to continue. “E-commerce is expected to account for more than 20% of U.S. retail sales by 2027, expanding at an over 10% CAGR.”⁵

According to the 2025 Harris Williams E-Commerce Consumer Survey, 88% of consumers used online channels for at least half their purchases in 2024, up from 84% in 2023. D2C brands are also typically better positioned in a dynamic global trade environment, says Will Bain, a managing director: “D2C brands can react more quickly to supply chain and cost changes, have greater flexibility in pricing decisions, and can enact pricing changes more readily. That capability, combined with more direct communication and messaging to the consumer, positions D2C brands to succeed during uncertain times.”

Three Key Success Factors

Given the many built-in advantages of the e-commerce-driven D2C model, how can growth-minded brands pull even further ahead with today’s consumers? In our recent experience with several high-growth D2C brands, we’ve observed the following key success factors:

Adopt a Consumer-First, Omni-Channel Strategy

With continued pressure on customer acquisition costs, building a comprehensive brand presence is key, including a strong presence in third-party marketplaces. Our 2025 E-Commerce Consumer Survey shows 62% of consumers visited online marketplaces during the 2024 holiday season, up from 42% in 2023. 33% made purchases from those marketplaces, compared to 19% in 2023. 

“The top marketplaces and retailer websites continue to further break down the barriers to shopping online, registering resilient growth during times of uncertainty,” says Budlong. “They’ve proven to be a critical source to drive brand awareness and customer conversion.”   

At the same time, having a physical presence in the right retail location allows consumers to see, touch, and try items in person, helping overcome some of the limitations of the D2C model while exposing new customers to digitally native brands. Consumers say a physical presence is as impactful as strong consumer reviews online—in fact, physical stores were consumers’ preferred places to research and discover new brands for the second year in a row. This trend is building: 68% of consumers said they preferred to buy products available through multiple channels versus 59% in the previous year.⁶

Elliott Hill, CEO of Nike, describes his company’s approach to this trend: “Our marketplace will be consumer-led, putting our best product and presentation in the path of the consumer, wherever they choose to shop.”⁷

Supply Chain Management

With global trade dynamics continuing to threaten to disrupt many consumer subsectors, many companies are investing in their supply chains and inventory management. According to a recent Harris Williams survey of purchasing and pricing executives, 90% of companies are expecting to make investments in supply chain adaptability, with nearly half making significant investments in these areas. Freight optimization is the leading tactic for offsetting tariffs, followed by order optimization.⁸  

Most companies are also identifying alternative domestic and international suppliers, particularly moving away from China-centric supply chain models. Over 80% of Harris Williams survey respondents plan to source more domestically or from less tariff-impacted trading partners. Many have also been exploring new warehousing options to help manage the dynamic global trade environment and improve service levels.⁹ 

Specifically, third-party logistics providers are increasingly being asked by shippers about bonded and FTZ warehousing options. “These facilities can help shippers keep their supply chains moving during tariff policy shifts while mitigating tariff impacts,” says Jason Bass, a managing director. “It’s often a better option than just ‘hitting pause’ on imports to minimize the supply chain shock when demand normalizes.” 

Supply chain regionalization is another strategy seeing more focus among e-commerce CEOs. Andy Jassy, CEO of Amazon, recently said the company was stocking items closer to where customers live to deliver more orders faster in fewer packages and at lower cost: “We delivered more items in the same day or next day in Q1 than any other quarter in our history.”¹⁰

Focus on Friction

While buying goods online has become much easier in recent years, continually reducing friction remains essential in today’s more competitive environment. Our survey shows roughly 2/3 of consumers agree that ease of purchase is a key factor in making a purchase online. It also shows that consumers are increasingly using buy-now-pay-later options as tools to manage their payment timing. Offering this option across the spectrum of average order size can further reduce barriers to purchase. 

Relatedly, increasingly sophisticated payment technology is enabling faster, lower-friction transactions—essential to tapping into consumer desire for easier and more expedited online shopping.   

Harley Finkelstein, President of Shopify, recently noted that the company’s Shop Pay button “had become a highly valuable piece of real estate for both merchants and buyers.” Finkelstein also said Shopify’s customers were actively seeking the Shop Pay button out during checkout and were more likely to abandon purchases if they were not available.¹¹  

And, as embodied by Amazon’s Rufus, AI agents are playing increasingly important roles in reducing friction while “humanizing” buying online. “The best AI agents, like Rufus, become more effective as consumers use them more often,” says Villar. “They have the potential to supplement and even replace human service providers with more consistency and efficiency in many circumstances, as well as prevent abandoned purchases and returns when there’s a question or an issue.” 

Conclusion

D2C brands with innovative e-commerce capabilities are poised to take advantage of today’s notably resilient consumer spending environment. While some uncertainty remains, removing friction from transactions, cultivating a multi-channel presence, and investing in more flexible and robust global supply chains will help leading D2C brands meet steady demand for a wide variety of goods—from the essentials to the affordable indulgences consumers continue to prioritize. 

To learn more, please contact our senior bankers.

1. https://www.jpmorgan.com/insights/global-research/economy/consumer-spending 

2. https://www.morganstanley.com/insights/articles/us-consumer-spending-trends-2025 

3. https://www.bea.gov/resources/learning-center/what-to-know-consumer-spending 

4. Harris Williams Spring 2025 E-Commerce Study 

5. Insider Intelligence | eMarketer 

6. 2025 Harris Williams E-Commerce Consumer Survey 

7. Elliot Hill, CEO of Nike, December 2024 Earnings Call 

8. 2025 Harris Williams/Insight2Profit Supply Chain Survey 

9. ibid 

10. Andy Jassy, CEO of Amazon, May 2025 Earnings Call 

11. Harley Finkelstein, President of Shopify, February 2025 Earnings Call